Tennis · Challenger Lexington · 03/08, 16:00
Prediction: Jay Friend vs Colton Smith
Team pages: Jay Friend · Colton Smith
Prediction summary
Winner
Jay Friend
Colton Smith
Estimated games
23.6
Recent form · 10 last
Jay Friend
5-5 (W-L)
Colton Smith
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jay Friend
0–2
Colton Smith
(2 last)
- 12 Jan0-2 5-12L
- 29 Jun0-2 2-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jay Friend 1547 · Colton Smith 1506
| Jay Friend | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jay Friend (rating 1547 vs 1506).
- Head-to-head: Jay Friend 0–2 Colton Smith (2).
- Note: Jay Friend makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Jay Friend | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-12.2 | 13.1-13.9 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.6% | 63.9% |
| Break % | 33.4% | 59.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6
H2H · Jay Friend 0 – 2 Colton Smith (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jay Friend 0–2 Colton Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/25 UTR Pro Tucson | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06/24 M15 Los Angeles | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 30/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 28/07 | Connor Church Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 21/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 11/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Strong Kirchheimer M25 Laval |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
Colton Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 25/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-22 | L |
| 24/06 | Borna Gojo Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Andy Andrade Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jay Friend vs Colton Smith?
Our model gives 52% to Colton Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.