Tennis · WTA Washington · 31/07, 18:00
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Anna Kalinskaya
Team pages: Jessica Pegula · Anna Kalinskaya
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Pegula
Anna Kalinskaya
Estimated games
24.4
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Pegula
7-3 (W-L)
Anna Kalinskaya
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jessica Pegula
4–1
Anna Kalinskaya
(5 last)
- 07 Jan2-1 14-12W
- 21 May1-2 12-16L
- 23 Mar2-1 19-15W
- 23 Jun2-1 19-17W
- 03 Aug2-1 15-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1580 · Anna Kalinskaya 1531
| Jessica Pegula | Anna Kalinskaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jessica Pegula (rating 1580 vs 1531).
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula 4–1 Anna Kalinskaya (5).
- Note: Anna Kalinskaya makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Anna Kalinskaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 78% (9) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-9.9 | 12.6-12.1 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 46.8% | 49.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4
H2H · Jessica Pegula 4 – 1 Anna Kalinskaya (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Pegula 4–1 Anna Kalinskaya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/26 WTA Brisbane | 2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 21/05/25 WTA Strasbourg | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 23/03/25 WTA Miami | 2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 23/06/24 WTA Berlin | 2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 03/08/19 WTA Washington | 2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Magdalena Frech WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 05/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/07 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Sara Sorribes Tormo Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Darja Vidmanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/06 | Linda Noskova WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 19/06 | Madison Keys WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Anna Kalinskaya
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Janice Tjen WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/07 | Belinda Bencic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/07 | Diane Parry Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Magdalena Frech Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Sinja Kraus WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Anastasia Potapova French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 30/05 | Maria Camila Osorio French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Anna Kalinskaya?
Our model gives 65% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.