Tennis · WTA Washington · 31/07, 21:00
Prediction: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Naomi Osaka
Team pages: Elisabetta Cocciaretto · Naomi Osaka
Prediction summary
Winner
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Naomi Osaka
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
3-7 (W-L)
Naomi Osaka
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
0–1
Naomi Osaka
(1 last)
- 21 Mar0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elisabetta Cocciaretto 1481 · Naomi Osaka 1592
| Elisabetta Cocciaretto | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naomi Osaka (rating 1481 vs 1592).
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 56.1% break avg.
- Naomi Osaka is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Elisabetta Cocciaretto 0–1 Naomi Osaka (1).
- Note: Elisabetta Cocciaretto makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Elisabetta Cocciaretto | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 0% (2) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.6-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-12.8 | 11.6-7 |
| Aces | 1 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 62.9% | 78.1% |
| Break % | 34.4% | 56.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Elisabetta Cocciaretto 0 – 1 Naomi Osaka (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elisabetta Cocciaretto 0–1 Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/24 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Emma Navarro WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 27/07 | Clara Tauson WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 29/06 | Xinyu Wang Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 22/06 | Ajla Tomljanovic WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 26/05 | Alina Korneeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Iga Swiatek WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 08/05 | Emma Navarro WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/05 | Sinja Kraus WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/04 | Alycia Parks WTA Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Veronika Podrez WTA Rouen · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Daria Kasatkina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Elsa Jacquemot Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Elise Mertens WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Magdalena Frech WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/06 | Aryna Sabalenka French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Naomi Osaka?
Our model gives 75% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.