Tennis · WTA Vancouver · 30/07, 20:30
Prediction: Mai Hontama vs Himeno Sakatsume
Team pages: Mai Hontama · Himeno Sakatsume
Prediction summary
Winner
Mai Hontama
Himeno Sakatsume
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Mai Hontama
7-3 (W-L)
Himeno Sakatsume
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mai Hontama
1–1
Himeno Sakatsume
(2 last)
- 14 Jan0-2 6-12L
- 05 Mar2-1 16-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mai Hontama 1554 · Himeno Sakatsume 1496
| Mai Hontama | Himeno Sakatsume | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mai Hontama (rating 1554 vs 1496).
- Mai Hontama is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mai Hontama | Himeno Sakatsume | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 100% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10 | 10.3-12 |
| Aces | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 62.2% | 58.5% |
| Break % | 55% | 46% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
H2H · Mai Hontama 1 – 1 Himeno Sakatsume (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mai Hontama 1–1 Himeno Sakatsume
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/26 Australian Open Women | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/03/20 ITF W25 Yokohama | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mai Hontama
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Jia-Jing Lu WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Kayla Day WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/07 | Lilli Tagger WTA Prague · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Diane Parry WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Valentina Ryser WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/07 | Barbora Palicova WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Alycia Parks WTA Athens · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 13/07 | Magda Linette WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 23/06 | Akasha Urhobo Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Himeno Sakatsume
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Ariana Arseneault WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Hong Yi Cody Wong WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 22/07 | Fiona Crawley W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
| 23/06 | Fiona Crawley Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Alicia Dudeney WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Mika Stojsavljevic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/06 | Alicia Dudeney WTA Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Ashlyn Krueger WTA Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Elena Pridankina French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mai Hontama vs Himeno Sakatsume?
Our model gives 57% to Mai Hontama, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.