Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 31/07, 06:00
Prediction: Cameron Norrie vs Bernard Tomic
Team pages: Cameron Norrie · Bernard Tomic
Prediction summary
Winner
Cameron Norrie
Bernard Tomic
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Cameron Norrie
5-5 (W-L)
Bernard Tomic
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cameron Norrie 1473 · Bernard Tomic 1616
| Cameron Norrie | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernard Tomic (rating 1473 vs 1616).
- Bernard Tomic is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Cameron Norrie | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 100% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.9-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-13.3 | 14.6-10.8 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.7% | 79% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 49.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.6
Over 21.5: 68% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 32% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cameron Norrie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | James Duckworth ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-31 | L |
| 16/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Mariano Navone ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Jannik Sinner ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/04 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/04 | Tomas Machac ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/04 | Rafael Jodar ATP Barcelona · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Karen Khachanov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/07 | Miguel Tobon ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 20/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 19/07 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | James McCabe Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cameron Norrie vs Bernard Tomic?
Our model gives 52% to Cameron Norrie, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.