Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 31/07, 04:30
Prediction: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina
Team pages: Denis Shapovalov · Dalibor Svrcina
Prediction summary
Winner
Denis Shapovalov
Dalibor Svrcina
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Denis Shapovalov
4-6 (W-L)
Dalibor Svrcina
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Denis Shapovalov 1463 · Dalibor Svrcina 1504
| Denis Shapovalov | Dalibor Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dalibor Svrcina (rating 1463 vs 1504).
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.7/match).
- Note: Dalibor Svrcina makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Denis Shapovalov | Dalibor Svrcina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (5) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-12.6 | 13.3-12.1 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 6.7 | 6 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 66% |
| Break % | 46.2% | 56.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.2
Over 21.5: 65% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 35% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 08/06 | Marin Cilic ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 26/05 | Jaime Faria French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 07/05 | Mariano Navone ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/04 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/04 | Alex Molcan ATP Munich · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Munich · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Dalibor Svrcina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Adam Walton ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Learner Tien Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-24 | L |
| 19/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/06 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Duje Ajdukovic Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina?
Our model gives 57% to Denis Shapovalov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.