Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 31/07, 03:00
Prediction: Francisco Cerundolo vs Arthur Gea
Team pages: Francisco Cerundolo · Arthur Gea
Prediction summary
Winner
Francisco Cerundolo
Arthur Gea
Estimated games
26.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Francisco Cerundolo
5-5 (W-L)
Arthur Gea
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francisco Cerundolo 1551 · Arthur Gea 1566
| Francisco Cerundolo | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Francisco Cerundolo makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Francisco Cerundolo | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 83% (6) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.4 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.9-15 | 13-9.9 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 37.5% | 56.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +4.9
Over 21.5: 80% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 20% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francisco Cerundolo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Jaume Munar Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 21/06 | Tommy Paul ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 19/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 30/05 | Zachary Svajda French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 22-25 | L |
| 28/05 | Hugo Gaston French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-13 | W |
| 25/05 | Botic Van De Zandschulp French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 18/05 | Alex De Minaur ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Michael Zheng ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Soonwoo Kwon ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 19/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 17/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 08/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francisco Cerundolo vs Arthur Gea?
Our model gives 58% to Francisco Cerundolo, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.