Tennis · WTA Targu Mures · 30/07, 10:00
Prediction: Francesca Jones vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Team pages: Francesca Jones · Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesca Jones
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Francesca Jones
7-3 (W-L)
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Francesca Jones
0–1
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
(1 last)
- 17 Feb1-2 16-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesca Jones 1662 · Lucija Ciric Bagaric 1551
| Francesca Jones | Lucija Ciric Bagaric | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesca Jones (rating 1662 vs 1551).
- Francesca Jones is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Francesca Jones 0–1 Lucija Ciric Bagaric (1).
Statistics
| Francesca Jones | Lucija Ciric Bagaric | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 100% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.5 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-7.3 | 10.2-9.6 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 65.6% | 64.2% |
| Break % | 63.6% | 54% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
H2H · Francesca Jones 0 – 1 Lucija Ciric Bagaric (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Francesca Jones 0–1 Lucija Ciric Bagaric
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/24 ITF W35 Hammamet | 1-2 | 16-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesca Jones
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Chloe Paquet WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Fiona Ferro WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Jennifer Ruggeri WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 23/07 | Miriam Bulgaru WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Darya Astakhova WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/07 | Martina Trevisan WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Noma Noha Akugue WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Federica Urgesi WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Rachel Gailis WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 27/07 | Maria Sara Popa WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Amandine Monnot WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Federica Urgesi W75 The Hague |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Deborah Chiesa W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 25/06 | Maria Toma W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Matilde Paoletti W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 14/06 | Deborah Chiesa WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Laura Mair W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Dora Miskovic W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesca Jones vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric?
Our model gives 78% to Francesca Jones, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.