Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 30/07, 04:00
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs Karen Khachanov
Team pages: Bernard Tomic · Karen Khachanov
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernard Tomic
Karen Khachanov
Estimated games
28.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Bernard Tomic
5-5 (W-L)
Karen Khachanov
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1541 · Karen Khachanov 1507
| Bernard Tomic | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 24% | 76% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Bernard Tomic is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (3) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 2.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-11.4 | 18.7-16.7 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 75.4% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 39.2% | 33.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +7
Over 21.5: 89% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 11% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/07 | Miguel Tobon ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 20/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 19/07 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | James McCabe Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Karen Khachanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 02/07 | Yannick Hanfmann Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 05/06 | Alexander Bublik Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 29/05 | Jesper De Jong French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 23-30 | L |
| 27/05 | Marco Trungelliti French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 24/05 | Arthur Gea French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 20/05 | Ugo Humbert ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs Karen Khachanov?
Our model gives 62% to Karen Khachanov, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.