Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 29/07, 03:00
Prediction: Aidan Mayo vs James Duckworth
Prediction summary
Winner
Aidan Mayo
James Duckworth
Estimated games
25.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aidan Mayo
3-7 (W-L)
James Duckworth
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aidan Mayo 1492 · James Duckworth 1446
| Aidan Mayo | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mayo (rating 1492 vs 1446).
- Note: Aidan Mayo makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Aidan Mayo | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.1-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-12.9 | 14.1-16 |
| Aces | 9.1 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 5 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 79.1% | 74.7% |
| Break % | 39.4% | 30.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.3
Over 22.5: 72% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 28% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aidan Mayo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/07 | Evan King ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 20/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 19/07 | Christian Langmo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 15/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Braden Shick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
James Duckworth
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 30/06 | Tallon Griekspoor Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 20/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 09/06 | Diego Dedura-Palomero ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 17-25 | L |
| 19/05 | Laslo Djere ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/05 | Edas Butvilas ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 16/05 | Miguel Damas ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aidan Mayo vs James Duckworth?
Our model gives 54% to James Duckworth, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.