Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 28/07, 03:00
Prediction: Alex Hernandez vs Bernard Tomic
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Hernandez
Bernard Tomic
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Hernandez
7-3 (W-L)
Bernard Tomic
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Hernandez
0–1
Bernard Tomic
(1 last)
- 11 Apr0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Hernandez 1519 · Bernard Tomic 1575
| Alex Hernandez | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernard Tomic (rating 1519 vs 1575).
- Head-to-head: Alex Hernandez 0–1 Bernard Tomic (1).
Statistics
| Alex Hernandez | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 100% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-10.3 | 14.2-11.8 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 5 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 66.6% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 46.1% | 31.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.1
Over 21.5: 58% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 42% · 1.90
H2H · Alex Hernandez 0 – 1 Bernard Tomic (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Hernandez 0–1 Bernard Tomic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/25 Challenger Mexico City | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Hernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Alan Magadan ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/07 | Nick Hardt Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 16/06 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Nicolas Oliveira M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 11-8 | W |
| 13/06 | Luis Felipe Miguel M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/06 | Pedro Rodrigues M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Jefferson Wendler Filho M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Bernard Tomic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Miguel Tobon ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 20/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 19/07 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | James McCabe Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Kaichi Uchida Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Hernandez vs Bernard Tomic?
Our model gives 59% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.