Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 28/07, 03:00
Prediction: Gabriel Diallo vs Tristan Boyer
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriel Diallo
Tristan Boyer
Estimated games
25.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriel Diallo
1-9 (W-L)
Tristan Boyer
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gabriel Diallo
2–0
Tristan Boyer
(2 last)
- 15 Aug2-1 19-17W
- 11 Apr2-1 18-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriel Diallo 1455 · Tristan Boyer 1530
| Gabriel Diallo | Tristan Boyer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tristan Boyer (rating 1455 vs 1530).
- Gabriel Diallo dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 45.5% break avg.
- Tristan Boyer dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 43.9% break avg.
- Tristan Boyer is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Gabriel Diallo 2–0 Tristan Boyer (2).
Statistics
| Gabriel Diallo | Tristan Boyer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (6) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-13.8 | 13.5-11.9 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 6.8 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.6% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.6
Over 22.5: 68% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 32% · 1.83
H2H · Gabriel Diallo 2 – 0 Tristan Boyer (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gabriel Diallo 2–0 Tristan Boyer
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/24 Challenger Cary | 2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 11/04/24 Challenger Sarasota | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriel Diallo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-30 | L |
| 25/06 | Jack Draper ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 16/04 | Alexander Zverev ATP Munich · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/04 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Munich · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/04 | Joao Fonseca ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/04 | Alex Molcan ATP Bucharest · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Tristan Boyer
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Lorenzo Claverie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Nuno Borges Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 25/06 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 26-21 | W |
| 24/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/06 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Jay Clarke Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/06 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 12/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 10/06 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriel Diallo vs Tristan Boyer?
Our model gives 53% to Gabriel Diallo, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.