Tennis · WTA Washington · 28/07, 16:00
Prediction: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya
Prediction summary
Winner
Daria Kasatkina
Anna Kalinskaya
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daria Kasatkina
3-7 (W-L)
Anna Kalinskaya
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daria Kasatkina
2–1
Anna Kalinskaya
(3 last)
- 10 Jan2-1 18-16W
- 21 Oct1-2 11-14L
- 24 Jul2-0 12-2W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daria Kasatkina 1501 · Anna Kalinskaya 1535
| Daria Kasatkina | Anna Kalinskaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Daria Kasatkina 2–1 Anna Kalinskaya (3).
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (7.5/match).
- Note: Anna Kalinskaya makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Daria Kasatkina | Anna Kalinskaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (6) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-12.1 | 12.5-11.5 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 7.5 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 59.7% | 64.4% |
| Break % | 56.9% | 51.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
H2H · Daria Kasatkina 2 – 1 Anna Kalinskaya (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daria Kasatkina 2–1 Anna Kalinskaya
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/24 WTA Adelaide | 2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 21/10/22 WTA Guadalajara | 1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/07/18 WTA Moscow | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daria Kasatkina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Alana Smith WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 25/07 | Mariam Bolkvadze WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Janice Tjen Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Mimi Xu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 22/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Anna Blinkova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Robin Montgomery WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 30/05 | Aryna Sabalenka French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Susan Bandecchi French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Anna Kalinskaya
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Belinda Bencic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/07 | Diane Parry Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Magdalena Frech Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Sinja Kraus WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Anastasia Potapova French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 30/05 | Maria Camila Osorio French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 28/05 | Alina Korneeva French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/05 | Lois Boisson French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Kalinskaya?
Our model gives 57% to Anna Kalinskaya, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.