Tennis · WTA Washington · 28/07, 16:00
Prediction: Ludmilla Samsonova vs Madison Keys
Prediction summary
Winner
Ludmilla Samsonova
Madison Keys
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Ludmilla Samsonova
7-3 (W-L)
Madison Keys
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ludmilla Samsonova
1–4
Madison Keys
(5 last)
- 24 May0-2 4-12L
- 27 Apr0-2 5-12L
- 02 Sept1-2 11-17L
- 13 Jan1-2 12-15L
- 18 Jun2-1 16-18W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ludmilla Samsonova 1477 · Madison Keys 1587
| Ludmilla Samsonova | Madison Keys | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Madison Keys (rating 1477 vs 1587).
- Madison Keys is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Ludmilla Samsonova 1–4 Madison Keys (5).
- Note: Ludmilla Samsonova makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Ludmilla Samsonova | Madison Keys | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 43% (7) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-12.5 | 12.9-8.8 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.7% | 79.5% |
| Break % | 54.6% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
H2H · Ludmilla Samsonova 1 – 4 Madison Keys (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ludmilla Samsonova 1–4 Madison Keys
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/24 WTA Strasbourg | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/04/24 WTA Madrid | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09/23 US Open Women | 1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 13/01/22 WTA Adelaide 2 | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 18/06/21 WTA Berlin | 2-1 | 16-18 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 02/07 | Diana Shnaider Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Polina Kudermetova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Elina Svitolina WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Elise Mertens WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Harriet Dart WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 25/05 | Jil Teichmann French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/05 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Madison Keys
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Amanda Anisimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 02/07 | Katie Swan Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Kayla Day Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 27/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/06 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 23/06 | Talia Gibson WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Karolina Muchova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ludmilla Samsonova vs Madison Keys?
Our model gives 69% to Madison Keys, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.