Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 29/07, 03:00
Prediction: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton
Prediction summary
Winner
Dalibor Svrcina
Adam Walton
Estimated games
24.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Dalibor Svrcina
6-4 (W-L)
Adam Walton
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dalibor Svrcina 1486 · Adam Walton 1528
| Dalibor Svrcina | Adam Walton | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adam Walton (rating 1486 vs 1528).
- Adam Walton dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 40.6% break avg.
- Note: Dalibor Svrcina makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Dalibor Svrcina | Adam Walton | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-12.2 | 13.9-12.7 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 5.1 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.7% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 57.1% | 40.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.3
Over 21.5: 72% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 28% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dalibor Svrcina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Learner Tien Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-24 | L |
| 19/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/06 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Duje Ajdukovic Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 02/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Adam Walton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Michael Zheng Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 22/07 | Thanasi Kokkinakis Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 12/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 11/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/06 | Dino Prizmic Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Nick Kyrgios ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton?
Our model gives 61% to Adam Walton, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.