Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 29/07, 03:00
Prediction: Denis Shapovalov vs Rinky Hijikata
Prediction summary
Winner
Denis Shapovalov
Rinky Hijikata
Estimated games
25.8Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Denis Shapovalov
4-6 (W-L)
Rinky Hijikata
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Denis Shapovalov
1–0
Rinky Hijikata
(1 last)
- 03 Jan2-1 14-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Denis Shapovalov 1436 · Rinky Hijikata 1520
| Denis Shapovalov | Rinky Hijikata | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rinky Hijikata (rating 1436 vs 1520).
- Rinky Hijikata is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Denis Shapovalov 1–0 Rinky Hijikata (1).
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.4/match).
Statistics
| Denis Shapovalov | Rinky Hijikata | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (3) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.7 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-13.8 | 14.4-14 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 6.4 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 71.5% |
| Break % | 41.3% | 43.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +2.3
Over 23.5: 66% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 34% · 1.80
H2H · Denis Shapovalov 1 – 0 Rinky Hijikata (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Denis Shapovalov 1–0 Rinky Hijikata
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/23 ATP Adelaide | 2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 08/06 | Marin Cilic ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 26/05 | Jaime Faria French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 07/05 | Mariano Navone ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/04 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/04 | Alex Molcan ATP Munich · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Munich · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/04 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Munich · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 06/04 | Alexander Blockx ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Rinky Hijikata
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Jesper De Jong Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-27 | L |
| 19/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 16/06 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/06 | Marcos Giron ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 13/06 | Dino Prizmic ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 11/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Tom Gentzsch ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 05/06 | Arthur Fery Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Denis Shapovalov vs Rinky Hijikata?
Our model gives 52% to Rinky Hijikata, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.