Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 29/07, 03:00
Prediction: Coleman Wong vs Darwin Blanch
Prediction summary
Winner
Coleman Wong
Darwin Blanch
Estimated games
25.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Coleman Wong
5-5 (W-L)
Darwin Blanch
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coleman Wong 1466 · Darwin Blanch 1507
| Coleman Wong | Darwin Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Blanch (rating 1466 vs 1507).
- Darwin Blanch dominates on serve: 7 aces and 44.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Coleman Wong | Darwin Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 20% (5) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-11.6 | 13.6-14.5 |
| Aces | 9.6 | 7 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 80% | 72% |
| Break % | 32.1% | 44.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.9
Over 23.5: 63% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 37% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coleman Wong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Anton Shepp Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/07 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Borna Gojo Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Billy Harris Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 06/06 | James McCabe ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 04/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Darwin Blanch
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 10/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 22/06 | Filip Cristian Jianu Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/06 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 13/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 12/06 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Christopher O'Connell Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coleman Wong vs Darwin Blanch?
Our model gives 53% to Darwin Blanch, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.