Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 27/07, 04:30
Prediction: Aidan Mayo vs Roger Pascual Ferra
Prediction summary
Winner
Aidan Mayo
Roger Pascual Ferra
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aidan Mayo
2-8 (W-L)
Roger Pascual Ferra
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aidan Mayo 1469 · Roger Pascual Ferra 1604
| Aidan Mayo | Roger Pascual Ferra | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roger Pascual Ferra (rating 1469 vs 1604).
- Roger Pascual Ferra is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Aidan Mayo makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Aidan Mayo | Roger Pascual Ferra | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-14.3 | 12.9-6.9 |
| Aces | 11.3 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 79.6% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 31% | 45.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 48% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 52% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aidan Mayo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Evan King ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 20/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 19/07 | Christian Langmo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 15/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Braden Shick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 30/05 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
Roger Pascual Ferra
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Colton Smith ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 23/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/07 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/06 | Mathys Picard M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/06 | Charles Bertimon M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Alexander Frusina M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/06 | Logan Zapp M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Nazim Makhlouf M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aidan Mayo vs Roger Pascual Ferra?
Our model gives 56% to Roger Pascual Ferra, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.