Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 27/07, 03:00
Prediction: Soonwoo Kwon vs Edward Winter
Prediction summary
Winner
Soonwoo Kwon
Edward Winter
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Soonwoo Kwon
6-4 (W-L)
Edward Winter
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Soonwoo Kwon 1562 · Edward Winter 1522
| Soonwoo Kwon | Edward Winter | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Soonwoo Kwon (rating 1562 vs 1522).
- Soonwoo Kwon dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 46.1% break avg.
- Note: Soonwoo Kwon makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Soonwoo Kwon | Edward Winter | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-11.1 | 13.8-13 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 74.1% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 46.1% | 27.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4.1
Over 19.5: 76% · 1.72
Under 19.5: 24% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Soonwoo Kwon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Martin Landaluce Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Alejandro Moro Canas Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Arthur Gea Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 22/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/06 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/05 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Edward Winter
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 19/07 | Josh Sheehy Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 13/07 | Strong Kirchheimer Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Justin Roberts Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 05/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 04/07 | William Manning Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Soonwoo Kwon vs Edward Winter?
Our model gives 70% to Soonwoo Kwon, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.