Tennis · Challenger Bloomfield Hills · 26/07, 19:00
Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Jacob Fearnley
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Jacob Fearnley
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Jacob Fearnley
Estimated games
26.6
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
8-2 (W-L)
Jacob Fearnley
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Michelsen
0–1
Jacob Fearnley
(1 last)
- 30 Jun2-3 19-25L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1545 · Jacob Fearnley 1622
| Alex Michelsen | Jacob Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jacob Fearnley (rating 1545 vs 1622).
- Head-to-head: Alex Michelsen 0–1 Jacob Fearnley (1).
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (6.9/match).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Jacob Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 60% (5) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1 | 1.8-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.2-12.5 | 14.6-11.7 |
| Aces | 5 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 6.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.8% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 53.9% | 49.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.6
H2H · Alex Michelsen 0 – 1 Jacob Fearnley (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Michelsen 0–1 Jacob Fearnley
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/26 Wimbledon | 2-3 | 19-25 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 11/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Jacob Fearnley Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-29 | L |
Jacob Fearnley
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Michael Zheng Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 23/07 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 10/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Jaume Munar Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Jacob Fearnley?
Our model gives 53% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.