Tennis · Challenger Bloomfield Hills · 24/07, 21:30
Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Mark Lajal
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Mark Lajal
Estimated games
27.2
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
8-2 (W-L)
Mark Lajal
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1546 · Mark Lajal 1509
| Alex Michelsen | Mark Lajal | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Alex Michelsen makes many double faults (4.1/match).
- Note: Mark Lajal makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Mark Lajal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 60% (5) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.2-13.3 | 13.7-13.6 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 53.5% | 23.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 11/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Jacob Fearnley Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-29 | L |
| 27/05 | Nishesh Basavareddy French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 25/05 | Alexander Shevchenko French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
Mark Lajal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 19/07 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Luka Pavlovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Arthur Gea Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Mark Lajal?
Our model gives 65% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.