Tennis · Challenger Samsun · 28/07, 15:00
Prediction: Arda Azkara vs Yanki Erel
Prediction summary
Winner
Arda Azkara
Yanki Erel
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Arda Azkara
3-7 (W-L)
Yanki Erel
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arda Azkara 1464 · Yanki Erel 1541
| Arda Azkara | Yanki Erel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanki Erel (rating 1464 vs 1541).
- Yanki Erel is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Arda Azkara makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Arda Azkara | Yanki Erel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-11.8 | 12.1-8.8 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 65.6% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 19.8% | 44% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arda Azkara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Johannus Monday Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Oliver Bonding Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Matias Reyniak M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 05/06 | Khololwam Montsi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/06 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 27/05 | Eliakim Coulibaly Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/05 | Patrick Schoen M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Yanki Erel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Dominik Palan Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 15/07 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/07 | Oliver Crawford M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Aren Baybars M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/07 | Iliyan Radulov M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Gianluca Carlini M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/07 | Noah Regas M25 Roda de Bara |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arda Azkara vs Yanki Erel?
Our model gives 70% to Yanki Erel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.