Tennis · Challenger Samsun · 26/07, 12:30
Prediction: Shunsuke Nakagawa vs Saba Purtseladze
Prediction summary
Winner
Shunsuke Nakagawa
Saba Purtseladze
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Shunsuke Nakagawa
5-5 (W-L)
Saba Purtseladze
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shunsuke Nakagawa 1446 · Saba Purtseladze 1503
| Shunsuke Nakagawa | Saba Purtseladze | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Saba Purtseladze (rating 1446 vs 1503).
- Saba Purtseladze dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 43% break avg.
- Note: Saba Purtseladze makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Shunsuke Nakagawa | Saba Purtseladze | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-11.3 | 13.8-12.2 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 6.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.5% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 48.4% | 43% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shunsuke Nakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Kazushi Idogaki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Yu Tanaka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Renta Tokuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Sora Fukuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Taketo Takamisawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/06 | Colin Sinclair M15 Harmon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/04 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/04 | S D Prajwal Dev Challenger Wuning Qual · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/03 | Yuki Mochizuki Challenger Miyazaki · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/03 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Yokkaichi · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
Saba Purtseladze
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 05/07 | Edouard Villoslada Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-1 | 16-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Daniel Siniakov M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 02/07 | Calvin Mueller M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Michael Bassem Sobhy M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/06 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Ivan Biletic M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/06 | Tamerlan Azizov Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Oleg Prihodko Davis Cup |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 11/06 | Radu Albot Davis Cup |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shunsuke Nakagawa vs Saba Purtseladze?
Our model gives 62% to Saba Purtseladze, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.