Tennis · Challenger Samsun · 26/07, 12:30
Prediction: Naoki Tajima vs Tuncay Duran
Prediction summary
Winner
Naoki Tajima
Tuncay Duran
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Naoki Tajima
5-5 (W-L)
Tuncay Duran
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Naoki Tajima
0–1
Tuncay Duran
(1 last)
- 21 Jan0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naoki Tajima 1476 · Tuncay Duran 1561
| Naoki Tajima | Tuncay Duran | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tuncay Duran (rating 1476 vs 1561).
- Tuncay Duran dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 46.9% break avg.
- Tuncay Duran is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Naoki Tajima 0–1 Tuncay Duran (1).
Statistics
| Naoki Tajima | Tuncay Duran | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-10.1 | 11.5-8.8 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 67% | 81.3% |
| Break % | 48.7% | 46.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
H2H · Naoki Tajima 0 – 1 Tuncay Duran (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naoki Tajima 0–1 Tuncay Duran
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/25 ITF M25 Doha | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naoki Tajima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Dinko Dinev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 21/06 | Alex Ganchev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Nitin Kumar Sinha Challenger Royan · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 10/06 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Justin Ilic M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/05 | Sanhui Shin M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Dongjae Kim M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 25/05 | Chikaya Sato M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/11 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Playford · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/11 | Naoya Honda Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Tuncay Duran
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Paul Barbier Gazeu M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/07 | Logan Zapp M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Karim Mabrouk M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 03/07 | Toufik Sahtali M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Mathys Picard M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 8-1 | W |
| 05/06 | Alexander Donski Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/06 | Alec Beckley Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/06 | Kris Van Wyk Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naoki Tajima vs Tuncay Duran?
Our model gives 75% to Tuncay Duran, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.