Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 26/07, 06:00
Prediction: Roger Pascual Ferra vs Colton Smith
Prediction summary
Winner
Roger Pascual Ferra
Colton Smith
Estimated games
21.9Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Roger Pascual Ferra
7-3 (W-L)
Colton Smith
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roger Pascual Ferra 1589 · Colton Smith 1504
| Roger Pascual Ferra | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roger Pascual Ferra (rating 1589 vs 1504).
- Roger Pascual Ferra is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Roger Pascual Ferra | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-7 | 12.7-13.6 |
| Aces | 1 | 4 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 43.7% | 60.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.4
Over 20.5: 60% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 40% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roger Pascual Ferra
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/07 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/06 | Mathys Picard M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/06 | Charles Bertimon M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Alexander Frusina M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/06 | Logan Zapp M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Nazim Makhlouf M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Ergi Kirkin M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
Colton Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 25/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-22 | L |
| 24/06 | Borna Gojo Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Andy Andrade Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 04/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roger Pascual Ferra vs Colton Smith?
Our model gives 60% to Colton Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.