Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 26/07, 03:00
Prediction: Miguel Tobon vs Bernard Tomic
Prediction summary
Winner
Miguel Tobon
Bernard Tomic
Estimated games
24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Miguel Tobon
4-6 (W-L)
Bernard Tomic
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miguel Tobon 1442 · Bernard Tomic 1582
| Miguel Tobon | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernard Tomic (rating 1442 vs 1582).
- Bernard Tomic is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Miguel Tobon | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (8) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-13.3 | 14.1-12 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 67.6% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 50.2% | 31.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Miguel Tobon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 13/07 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Martin Krumich Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/06 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Mika Brunold Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/05 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 19/07 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | James McCabe Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Kaichi Uchida Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Conor Gannon Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Miguel Tobon vs Bernard Tomic?
Our model gives 68% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.