Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 26/07, 04:30
Prediction: Soonwoo Kwon vs Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros
Prediction summary
Winner
Soonwoo Kwon
Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Soonwoo Kwon
6-4 (W-L)
Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Soonwoo Kwon 1550 · Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros 1502
| Soonwoo Kwon | Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 89% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Soonwoo Kwon (rating 1550 vs 1502).
- Soonwoo Kwon dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 44.4% break avg.
- Note: Soonwoo Kwon makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Soonwoo Kwon | Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-11.3 | 11-10.1 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 63.9% |
| Break % | 44.4% | 36.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +3.1
Over 19.5: 70% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 30% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Soonwoo Kwon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Martin Landaluce Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Alejandro Moro Canas Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Arthur Gea Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 22/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/06 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/05 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/05 | Mark Lajal Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Lancelot Erler Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 23/06 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Radu David Turcanu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 21/06 | Cesar Stefan Bentzel Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/06 | Radu Mihai Papoe M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 12/06 | Fadi Bidan M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Lorenzo Comino M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/04 | Tibo Colson Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Soonwoo Kwon vs Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros?
Our model gives 75% to Soonwoo Kwon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.