Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 26/07, 03:00
Prediction: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Edward Winter
Prediction summary
Winner
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Edward Winter
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
5-5 (W-L)
Edward Winter
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes 1518 · Edward Winter 1509
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Edward Winter | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Edward Winter | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-12.3 | 13.6-12.9 |
| Aces | 1 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 65% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 42.5% | 30.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.6
Over 22.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 01/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Felipe Rivadeneira Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/10 | Zsombor Velcz ITF M25 Harlingen · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 22/10 | Asahi Harazaki ITF M25 Norman · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/09 | Keegan Smith ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 20/09 | Raphael Perot ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/09 | Alexander Kotzen ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 18/09 | Orel Kimhi ITF M15 Fayetteville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Edward Winter
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 19/07 | Josh Sheehy Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 13/07 | Strong Kirchheimer Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Justin Roberts Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 05/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 04/07 | William Manning Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 28/06 | Ian Mayew Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Edward Winter?
Our model gives 53% to Edward Winter, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.