Tennis · ATP Los Cabos · 26/07, 04:30
Prediction: Nicolas Mejia vs Alex Hernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Mejia
Alex Hernandez
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Mejia
9-1 (W-L)
Alex Hernandez
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nicolas Mejia
2–1
Alex Hernandez
(3 last)
- 01 Apr2-1 18-13W
- 15 Apr2-0 12-5W
- 25 Mar1-2 14-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Mejia 1609 · Alex Hernandez 1456
| Nicolas Mejia | Alex Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nicolas Mejia (rating 1609 vs 1456).
- Nicolas Mejia dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 44% break avg.
- Nicolas Mejia is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Nicolas Mejia 2–1 Alex Hernandez (3).
Statistics
| Nicolas Mejia | Alex Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (5) | 0% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-0.7 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.3-12.1 | 10.3-11.5 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 63.2% |
| Break % | 44% | 47.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +3.9
Over 20.5: 75% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 25% · 1.83
H2H · Nicolas Mejia 2 – 1 Alex Hernandez (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nicolas Mejia 2–1 Alex Hernandez
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 Challenger San Luis Potosi | 2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 15/04/25 Challenger San Luis Potosi | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/03/25 Challenger Morelia | 1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Fermin Tenti Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-21 | W |
| 25/06 | Tristan Schoolkate Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Gustavo Heide Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Henrique Rocha Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Alex Hernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Nick Hardt Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 16/06 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Nicolas Oliveira M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 11-8 | W |
| 13/06 | Luis Felipe Miguel M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/06 | Pedro Rodrigues M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Jefferson Wendler Filho M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/05 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Naoya Honda Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Mejia vs Alex Hernandez?
Our model gives 75% to Nicolas Mejia, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.