Tennis · WTA Washington · 25/07, 19:00
Prediction: Daria Kasatkina vs Mariam Bolkvadze
Prediction summary
Winner
Daria Kasatkina
Mariam Bolkvadze
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Daria Kasatkina
4-6 (W-L)
Mariam Bolkvadze
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daria Kasatkina 1469 · Mariam Bolkvadze 1514
| Daria Kasatkina | Mariam Bolkvadze | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mariam Bolkvadze (rating 1469 vs 1514).
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (6.3/match).
- Note: Mariam Bolkvadze makes many double faults (8.5/match).
Statistics
| Daria Kasatkina | Mariam Bolkvadze | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (6) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-12.4 | 9.6-10.9 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 6.3 | 8.5 |
| 1st serve % | 59.5% | 58% |
| Break % | 59.8% | 39.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daria Kasatkina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Janice Tjen Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Mimi Xu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 22/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Anna Blinkova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Robin Montgomery WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 30/05 | Aryna Sabalenka French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Susan Bandecchi French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/05 | Zeynep Sonmez French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/05 | Jaqueline Adina Cristian WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Mariam Bolkvadze
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Kaitlyn Carnicella W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 02/07 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Ajla Tomljanovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Jeline Vandromme Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Hayu Kinoshita Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Julia Grabher Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Francisca Jorge W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Nao Hibino WTA Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Esther Adeshina W35 Nottingham |
1-1 | 6-2 | W |
| 02/05 | Emily Appleton W35 Nottingham |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daria Kasatkina vs Mariam Bolkvadze?
Our model gives 61% to Daria Kasatkina, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.