Tennis · M25 Ollersbach · 24/07, 14:00
Prediction: Jan Kumstat vs Mathys Erhard
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan Kumstat
Mathys Erhard
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Jan Kumstat
5-5 (W-L)
Mathys Erhard
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan Kumstat 1534 · Mathys Erhard 1538
| Jan Kumstat | Mathys Erhard | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jan Kumstat dominates on serve: 8 aces and 48% break avg.
Statistics
| Jan Kumstat | Mathys Erhard | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-9.4 | 12.6-8.8 |
| Aces | 8 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 77.2% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 48% | 46.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan Kumstat
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Yuichiro Inui M25 Ollersbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/07 | Thijs Boogaard Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/07 | Florian Broska Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 14/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Mateus Alves Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/07 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/06 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Duje Markovina M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Kai Wehnelt M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Mathys Erhard
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Thilo Behrmann M25 Ollersbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Jonas Gundacker M25 Ollersbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/07 | Nitin Kumar Sinha Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/06 | Jacopo Bilardo Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan Kumstat vs Mathys Erhard?
Our model gives 50% to Jan Kumstat, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.