Tennis · W100 Evansville · 22/07, 20:00
Prediction: Mary Stoiana vs Anna Rogers
Prediction summary
Winner
Mary Stoiana
Anna Rogers
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Mary Stoiana
8-2 (W-L)
Anna Rogers
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mary Stoiana
1–0
Anna Rogers
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mary Stoiana 1548 · Anna Rogers 1453
| Mary Stoiana | Anna Rogers | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mary Stoiana (rating 1548 vs 1453).
- Mary Stoiana is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Mary Stoiana 1–0 Anna Rogers (1).
Statistics
| Mary Stoiana | Anna Rogers | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 60% (10) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-10.1 | 9.7-11.6 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 63.5% | 56.6% |
| Break % | 60.2% | 45.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Mary Stoiana 1 – 0 Anna Rogers (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mary Stoiana 1–0 Anna Rogers
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/25 W50 Chihuahua | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mary Stoiana
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew WTA Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Iryna Shymanovich WTA Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 08/07 | Katrina Scott WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/06 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Kayla Cross Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/06 | Celine Naef WTA Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Tatiana Prozorova WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Lulu Sun WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/06 | Kayla Day WTA Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/06 | Rebeka Masarova WTA Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
Anna Rogers
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Jenna Defalco W100 Evansville |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 09/07 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Sahaja Yamalapalli WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Sofia Johnson W100 Cary · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Maria Sholokhova W35 Decatur · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 02/06 | Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez W100 Sumter · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Bella Payne W50 Pelham · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/05 | Savannah Broadus W35 Bethany Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Ligaya Murray W35 Bethany Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 07/05 | Elvina Kalieva W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mary Stoiana vs Anna Rogers?
Our model gives 76% to Mary Stoiana, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.