Tennis · Challenger Bloomfield Hills · 23/07, 17:00
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Tristan Boyer
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Tristan Boyer
Estimated games
25.8
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
3-7 (W-L)
Tristan Boyer
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jacob Fearnley
1–0
Tristan Boyer
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1580 · Tristan Boyer 1529
| Jacob Fearnley | Tristan Boyer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jacob Fearnley (rating 1580 vs 1529).
- Head-to-head: Jacob Fearnley 1–0 Tristan Boyer (1).
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (6.7/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Tristan Boyer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 78% (9) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.2 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.5-12.9 | 13.2-11.5 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 6.7 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 46.4% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8
H2H · Jacob Fearnley 1 – 0 Tristan Boyer (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jacob Fearnley 1–0 Tristan Boyer
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/25 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 10/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Jaume Munar Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Alex Michelsen Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 25-19 | W |
| 17/06 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
Tristan Boyer
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Nuno Borges Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 25/06 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 26-21 | W |
| 24/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/06 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Jay Clarke Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/06 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 12/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 10/06 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/06 | Raphael Perot Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Tristan Boyer?
Our model gives 61% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.