Tennis · W15 Gran Canaria · 22/07, 13:15
Prediction: Anais Gabriel vs Lucia Natal
Prediction summary
Winner
Anais Gabriel
Lucia Natal
Estimated games
19.7
Recent form · 10 last
Anais Gabriel
7-3 (W-L)
Lucia Natal
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Anais Gabriel 1542 · Lucia Natal 1496
| Anais Gabriel | Lucia Natal | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Anais Gabriel (rating 1542 vs 1496).
- Note: Anais Gabriel makes many double faults (4.2/match).
- Note: Lucia Natal makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Anais Gabriel | Lucia Natal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.7 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-6.7 | 9.4-10.8 |
| Aces | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 60.7% | 56.8% |
| Break % | 57.1% | 50.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Anais Gabriel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Sonia Cassani W15 Gran Canaria |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Mara Guth W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Ayline Esina Samardzic W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/06 | Tamara Bachmann W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/05 | Verena Meliss W15 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Mariia Drobysheva W15 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/05 | Jenny Duerst W15 Reichstett · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/05 | Mila Bastianelli W15 Reichstett · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/05 | Alina Kornieieva W15 Reichstett · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/04 | Sara Shumate W15 Bonita Springs · ~Clay |
1-1 | 10-9 | W |
Lucia Natal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Carlota Vila Salles W15 Gran Canaria |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/07 | Nina Radovanovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Charlotte Pikkaart W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 14/07 | Ariana Geerlings W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 10/07 | Elza Tomase W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Cayetana Gay W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Georgina Hays W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 13/05 | Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-10 | W |
| 06/05 | Polona Hercog W35 Platja d'Aro · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Isis Louise Van den Broek W35 Platja d'Aro · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Anais Gabriel vs Lucia Natal?
Our model gives 60% to Anais Gabriel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.