Tennis · M25 Metzingen · 22/07, 15:00
Prediction: Max Houkes vs Stefan Popovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Max Houkes
Stefan Popovic
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Max Houkes
5-5 (W-L)
Stefan Popovic
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Max Houkes 1469 · Stefan Popovic 1530
| Max Houkes | Stefan Popovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefan Popovic (rating 1469 vs 1530).
- Stefan Popovic is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Max Houkes | Stefan Popovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-10.6 | 9.9-9.5 |
| Aces | 7 | 0.7 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 64.1% |
| Break % | 31.2% | 59.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Max Houkes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 15/07 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/07 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Laslo Djere Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Martin Damm ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 01/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Marco Cecchinato French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 27/04 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Ostrava · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Stefan Popovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 03/07 | Nicolas Bruna M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/07 | Vuk Radjenovic M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Gorazd Srbljak M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 29/05 | Alexander Vasilev M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Edoardo Zanada M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 27/05 | Federico Valle M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/05 | Lorenzo Berto M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-11 | L |
| 30/04 | Niccolo Ciavarella M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Marco Furlanetto M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Max Houkes vs Stefan Popovic?
Our model gives 63% to Max Houkes, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.