Tennis · W100 Evansville · 21/07, 17:00
Prediction: Ayana Akli vs Kaitlyn Carnicella
Prediction summary
Winner
Ayana Akli
Kaitlyn Carnicella
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Ayana Akli
4-6 (W-L)
Kaitlyn Carnicella
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ayana Akli 1507 · Kaitlyn Carnicella 1573
| Ayana Akli | Kaitlyn Carnicella | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaitlyn Carnicella (rating 1507 vs 1573).
- Kaitlyn Carnicella is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Kaitlyn Carnicella makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Ayana Akli | Kaitlyn Carnicella | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-11 | 13.1-11.5 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 60.3% | 58.1% |
| Break % | 45.8% | 55.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ayana Akli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Malaika Rapolu W50 Columbus |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Ena Koike W100 Cary · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Amelia Honer W35 Rome |
2-0 | 12-10 | W |
| 27/06 | Jo Yee Chan W35 Rome |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 26/06 | Ena Koike W35 Rome |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Tatum Evans W35 Rome |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Lily Fairclough W35 Rome |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/06 | Diletta Cherubini W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 27/05 | Nadia Podoroska W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Katarzyna Kawa French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Kaitlyn Carnicella
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Mariam Bolkvadze W100 Evansville |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Monika Ekstrand W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Veronika Miroshnichenko W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/06 | Maria Aytoyan W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/06 | Salma Ewing W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 14/06 | Alina Shcherbinina W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-19 | L |
| 13/06 | Monika Ekstrand W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Lily Taylor W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 11/06 | Rachel Gailis W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Natalie Kha W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ayana Akli vs Kaitlyn Carnicella?
Our model gives 60% to Ayana Akli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.