Tennis · W15 Brisbane · 21/07, 05:00
Prediction: Mana Kawamura vs Natsuki Yoshimoto
Prediction summary
Winner
Mana Kawamura
Natsuki Yoshimoto
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Mana Kawamura
0-10 (W-L)
Natsuki Yoshimoto
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mana Kawamura 1396 · Natsuki Yoshimoto 1551
| Mana Kawamura | Natsuki Yoshimoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 71% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Natsuki Yoshimoto (rating 1396 vs 1551).
- Natsuki Yoshimoto is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Natsuki Yoshimoto makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Mana Kawamura | Natsuki Yoshimoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 14% (7) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.2-1.9 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 5.9-11.9 | 13.3-11.1 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 44.9% | 61.2% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 54.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mana Kawamura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Alana Subasic W15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Stefani Webb W15 Sapporo |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Natsuho Arakawa W15 Sapporo |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Mutsumi Uemura W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Emily Appleton W35 Changwon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Hee Rae Im W35 Andong · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/05 | BoYoung Jeong W35 Changwon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Jiangxue Han W35 Goyang · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/04 | Nana Kawagishi W35 Miyazaki · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/02 | Annemarie Lazar W15 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-8 | W |
Natsuki Yoshimoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Belle Thompson W15 Brisbane |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 17/07 | Lily Taylor W15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Himari Sato W15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 14/07 | Jizelle Sibai W15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 12/06 | Ikumi Yamazaki W15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Gaeul Jang W15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 09/06 | Cherry Kim W15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/05 | Hiromi Abe W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Sae Noguchi W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/05 | Ayumi Miyamoto W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mana Kawamura vs Natsuki Yoshimoto?
Our model gives 80% to Natsuki Yoshimoto, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.