Tennis · W100 Evansville · 20/07, 18:00
Prediction: Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Mariam Bolkvadze
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Prediction summary
Winner
Kaitlyn Carnicella
Mariam Bolkvadze
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Kaitlyn Carnicella
5-5 (W-L)
Mariam Bolkvadze
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kaitlyn Carnicella 1595 · Mariam Bolkvadze 1526
| Kaitlyn Carnicella | Mariam Bolkvadze | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaitlyn Carnicella (rating 1595 vs 1526).
- Note: Kaitlyn Carnicella makes many double faults (4.3/match).
- Note: Mariam Bolkvadze makes many double faults (8.1/match).
Statistics
| Kaitlyn Carnicella | Mariam Bolkvadze | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11 | 9.8-9.9 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 8.1 |
| 1st serve % | 57.3% | 58.8% |
| Break % | 56.7% | 44.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kaitlyn Carnicella
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Monika Ekstrand W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Veronika Miroshnichenko W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/06 | Maria Aytoyan W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/06 | Salma Ewing W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 14/06 | Alina Shcherbinina W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-19 | L |
| 13/06 | Monika Ekstrand W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Lily Taylor W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 11/06 | Rachel Gailis W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Natalie Kha W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Salma Ziouti W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Mariam Bolkvadze
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Ajla Tomljanovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Jeline Vandromme Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Hayu Kinoshita Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Julia Grabher Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Francisca Jorge W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Nao Hibino WTA Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Esther Adeshina W35 Nottingham |
1-1 | 6-2 | W |
| 02/05 | Emily Appleton W35 Nottingham |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/05 | Vaishnavi Adkar W35 Nottingham |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Mariam Bolkvadze?
Our model gives 60% to Mariam Bolkvadze, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.