Tennis · Challenger Bloomfield Hills · 20/07, 17:40
Prediction: Stefan Kozlov vs Roger Pascual Ferra
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefan Kozlov
Roger Pascual Ferra
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Stefan Kozlov
6-4 (W-L)
Roger Pascual Ferra
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefan Kozlov 1528 · Roger Pascual Ferra 1616
| Stefan Kozlov | Roger Pascual Ferra | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roger Pascual Ferra (rating 1528 vs 1616).
Statistics
| Stefan Kozlov | Roger Pascual Ferra | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11 | 11.8-7.2 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 64% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 51.6% | 50.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefan Kozlov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Leo Vithoontien Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 10/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 09/07 | Yibing Wu Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 12/05 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/05 | Mario Mansilla Diez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/04 | Nick Hardt Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 8-14 | L |
| 20/04 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Savannah · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Roger Pascual Ferra
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/06 | Mathys Picard M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/06 | Charles Bertimon M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Alexander Frusina M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/06 | Logan Zapp M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Nazim Makhlouf M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Ergi Kirkin M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Rocco Piatti M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/06 | Jackson Ross M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/06 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefan Kozlov vs Roger Pascual Ferra?
Our model gives 53% to Stefan Kozlov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.