Tennis · WTA Hamburg · 21/07, 10:00
Prediction: Katarzyna Kawa vs Paula Badosa
Prediction summary
Winner
Katarzyna Kawa
Paula Badosa
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Katarzyna Kawa
7-3 (W-L)
Paula Badosa
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Katarzyna Kawa
0–1
Paula Badosa
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Katarzyna Kawa 1533 · Paula Badosa 1639
| Katarzyna Kawa | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paula Badosa (rating 1533 vs 1639).
- Head-to-head: Katarzyna Kawa 0–1 Paula Badosa (1).
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (6.2/match).
Statistics
| Katarzyna Kawa | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 100% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-9.5 | 13.4-9.8 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 6.2 |
| 1st serve % | 65.5% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 51.1% | 45.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Katarzyna Kawa 0 – 1 Paula Badosa (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Katarzyna Kawa 0–1 Paula Badosa
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/19 WTA Hertogenbosch | 1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Katarzyna Kawa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 14/07 | Simona Waltert WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Simona Waltert WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Kayla Day Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Lucrezia Stefanini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 23/06 | Susan Bandecchi Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Modena · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 13/06 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva WTA Modena · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 12/06 | Dominika Salkova WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/06 | Noma Noha Akugue WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Paula Badosa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/07 | Simona Waltert WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 10/07 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/07 | Varvara Lepchenko WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/07 | Emiliana Arango WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Marina Bassols Ribera WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Katarzyna Kawa vs Paula Badosa?
Our model gives 65% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.