Tennis · WTA Hamburg · 20/07, 10:00
Prediction: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Pieri
Maria Lourdes Carle
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Pieri
2-8 (W-L)
Maria Lourdes Carle
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jessica Pieri
1–0
Maria Lourdes Carle
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pieri 1427 · Maria Lourdes Carle 1534
| Jessica Pieri | Maria Lourdes Carle | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maria Lourdes Carle (rating 1427 vs 1534).
- Maria Lourdes Carle is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pieri 1–0 Maria Lourdes Carle (1).
- Note: Maria Lourdes Carle makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Jessica Pieri | Maria Lourdes Carle | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 17% (6) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.8 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8-12.9 | 10.8-8.9 |
| Aces | 0 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 47.3% | 62.2% |
| Break % | 43.1% | 48.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
H2H · Jessica Pieri 1 – 0 Maria Lourdes Carle (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Pieri 1–0 Maria Lourdes Carle
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/25 WTA Huzhou | 2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Nuria Brancaccio WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Mia Ristic W75 The Hague |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Deborah Chiesa W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/05 | Han Shi WTA Jiujiang · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Sijia Wei WTA Huzhou · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/04 | Alina Charaeva WTA Rouen · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/04 | Oceane Babel WTA Rouen · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 09/04 | Alicia Dudeney W75 Calvi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 08/04 | Gabriela Knutson W75 Calvi · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
Maria Lourdes Carle
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Emily Eigelsbach WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/07 | Marina Bassols Ribera WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Barbora Palicova WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 14/07 | Kathinka Von Deichmann WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Anna Blinkova WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Laura Pigossi WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/07 | Lisa Pigato W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Dalila Jakupovic W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Valentina Steiner W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 24/06 | Jeline Vandromme Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle?
Our model gives 75% to Maria Lourdes Carle, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.