Tennis · Challenger Bloomfield Hills · 19/07, 16:00
Prediction: Quinn Vandecasteele vs Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Quinn Vandecasteele
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Quinn Vandecasteele
4-6 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Quinn Vandecasteele
1–0
Sebastian Gorzny
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Quinn Vandecasteele 1458 · Sebastian Gorzny 1528
| Quinn Vandecasteele | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Gorzny (rating 1458 vs 1528).
- Quinn Vandecasteele dominates on serve: 7 aces and 43.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Quinn Vandecasteele 1–0 Sebastian Gorzny (1).
Statistics
| Quinn Vandecasteele | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-11.2 | 12.1-11.8 |
| Aces | 7 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 61.9% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 43.9% | 41.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
H2H · Quinn Vandecasteele 1 – 0 Sebastian Gorzny (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Quinn Vandecasteele 1–0 Sebastian Gorzny
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/24 M25 Tulsa | 2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Quinn Vandecasteele
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Keshav Chopra Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 07/07 | James Trotter Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 28/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Cruz Hewitt Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/06 | Charles Broom Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Aidan Kim Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Sebastian Gorzny
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Landon Ardila M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Joshua Sheehy M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Ozan Baris M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Enzo Aguiard M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Kenta Miyoshi M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Blake Ellis M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Mikael Arseneault M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/06 | Liam Draxl Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Quinn Vandecasteele vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 52% to Sebastian Gorzny, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.