Tennis · W15 Kursumlijska Banja · 15/07, 09:00
Prediction: Ellie Daniels vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato
Prediction summary
Winner
Ellie Daniels
Emma Ottavia Ghirardato
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Ellie Daniels
6-4 (W-L)
Emma Ottavia Ghirardato
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ellie Daniels 1482 · Emma Ottavia Ghirardato 1551
| Ellie Daniels | Emma Ottavia Ghirardato | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Emma Ottavia Ghirardato (rating 1482 vs 1551).
- Emma Ottavia Ghirardato is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Ellie Daniels makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Ellie Daniels | Emma Ottavia Ghirardato | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-9.3 | 13-9.7 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 60.4% | 59.5% |
| Break % | 36.6% | 63% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ellie Daniels
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Fangyu Shang W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/06 | Arina Kostina W15 Kamen · ~Clay |
1-1 | 11-8 | W |
| 26/05 | Gabriela Paun W15 Oliva · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-11 | L |
| 29/04 | Meritxell Teixido Garcia W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Eva Lopez W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/03 | Ruby Cooling W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 6-10 | L |
| 24/03 | Inka Wawrzkiewicz W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-11 | L |
| 16/11 | Maria Martinez Vaquero ITF W75 Petange · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/10 | Victoria Milovanova W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/10 | Alisa Yakimakho W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Emma Ottavia Ghirardato
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Amelie Van Impe W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Olga Bienzobas Fernandez W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 29/06 | Maria Trujillo Garnica W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/06 | Ksenia Zaytseva W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Mariya Yemshanova W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/06 | Helena Stevic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 13/06 | Marie Mettraux W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Mia Horvit W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 11/06 | Alexa Karatancheva W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/06 | Elena Milovanovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ellie Daniels vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato?
Our model gives 63% to Emma Ottavia Ghirardato, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.