Tennis · M15 Monastir · 15/07, 10:30
Prediction: Alaa Trifi vs Daniel Bagnolini
Prediction summary
Winner
Alaa Trifi
Daniel Bagnolini
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Alaa Trifi
5-5 (W-L)
Daniel Bagnolini
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alaa Trifi
0–2
Daniel Bagnolini
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alaa Trifi 1496 · Daniel Bagnolini 1437
| Alaa Trifi | Daniel Bagnolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alaa Trifi (rating 1496 vs 1437).
- Head-to-head: Alaa Trifi 0–2 Daniel Bagnolini (2).
- Note: Alaa Trifi makes many double faults (5.6/match).
- Note: Daniel Bagnolini makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Alaa Trifi | Daniel Bagnolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.1 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-10.4 | 8.9-11.9 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.2% | 58.1% |
| Break % | 49.3% | 45.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
H2H · Alaa Trifi 0 – 2 Daniel Bagnolini (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alaa Trifi 0–2 Daniel Bagnolini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/24 ITF M25 Hammamet | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/04/24 ITF M25 Hammamet | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alaa Trifi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Jonas Eriksson Ziverts M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Toufik Sahtali M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Alexander Frusina M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 24/06 | Jackson Ross M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/05 | Maxime Chazal M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Mathieu Scaglia M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/05 | Luca Wiedenmann M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/05 | Samuele Seghetti M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-0 | 9-6 | W |
| 30/04 | Gilberto Ravasio M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/04 | Marcello Serafini M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
Daniel Bagnolini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Timofey Stepanov M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Jacopo Bilardo M15 Messina · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 18/05 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Sebastian Sorger Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 11/05 | Filippo Mazzola M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-10 | L |
| 10/05 | Max Kohler M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/04 | Kasra Rahmani M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/04 | Niels McDonald M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alaa Trifi vs Daniel Bagnolini?
Our model gives 63% to Alaa Trifi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.