Tennis · ATP Bastad MD · 15/07, 10:00
Prediction: Luz/Matos vs Arends/Pel
Prediction summary
Winner
Luz/Matos
Arends/Pel
Estimated games
25.3
Recent form · 10 last
Luz/Matos
5-5 (W-L)
Arends/Pel
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luz/Matos
0–1
Arends/Pel
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luz/Matos 1530 · Arends/Pel 1549
| Luz/Matos | Arends/Pel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Arends/Pel is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Luz/Matos 0–1 Arends/Pel (1).
Statistics
| Luz/Matos | Arends/Pel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-14.1 | 13.4-12.8 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 77.9% |
| Break % | 25.9% | 28.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3
H2H · Luz/Matos 0 – 1 Arends/Pel (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luz/Matos 0–1 Arends/Pel
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Challenger Valencia MD | 1-2 | 20-23 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luz/Matos
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Pieczonka/Vrbensky Challenger Braunschweig MD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/07 | Sperle/Strombachs Challenger Braunschweig MD · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Behar/Romios Challenger Braunschweig MD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Arribage/Olivetti Wimbledon MD · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Stevenson/Willis ATP Eastbourne MD · Grass |
1-2 | 23-23 | L |
| 16/06 | Arribage/Olivetti ATP Halle MD · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Romboli/Smith ATP Stuttgart MD · Grass |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 27/05 | Goransson/King French Open MD · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Harrison/Skupski ATP Hamburg MD · Clay |
1-2 | 12-20 | L |
| 16/05 | Arends/Pel Challenger Valencia MD · Clay |
1-2 | 20-23 | L |
Arends/Pel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Griekspoor/Van De Zandschulp Wimbledon MD · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Gonzalez/Gonzalez ATP Mallorca MD · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/06 | Bergs/Rinderknech ATP Hertogenbosch MD · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Griekspoor/Van De Zandschulp ATP Hertogenbosch MD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/06 | Diallo/Hurkacz ATP Hertogenbosch MD · Grass |
2-1 | 21-19 | W |
| 11/06 | Loof/Veldheer ATP Hertogenbosch MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Halys/Herbert French Open MD · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Arevalo/Pavic French Open MD · Clay |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 29/05 | Krajicek/Mektic French Open MD · Clay |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 27/05 | Gea/Jacquet French Open MD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luz/Matos vs Arends/Pel?
Our model gives 51% to Luz/Matos, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.