Tennis · Wimbledon MD · 11/07, 14:00
Prediction: Heliovaara/Patten vs Arevalo/Pavic
Prediction summary
Winner
Heliovaara/Patten
Arevalo/Pavic
Estimated games
24.3
Recent form · 10 last
Heliovaara/Patten
5-5 (W-L)
Arevalo/Pavic
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Heliovaara/Patten
5–3
Arevalo/Pavic
(8 last)
51%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Heliovaara/Patten 1607 · Arevalo/Pavic 1615
| Heliovaara/Patten | Arevalo/Pavic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Arevalo/Pavic dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 41.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Heliovaara/Patten 5–3 Arevalo/Pavic (8).
- Note: Heliovaara/Patten makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Heliovaara/Patten | Arevalo/Pavic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 89% (9) | 100% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-12.6 | 14.2-9.5 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 77.1% | 81.3% |
| Break % | 20.2% | 41.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3
H2H · Heliovaara/Patten 5 – 3 Arevalo/Pavic (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Heliovaara/Patten 5–3 Arevalo/Pavic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 ATP Queens MD | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/04/26 ATP Madrid MD | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/03/26 ATP Miami MD | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/02/26 ATP Dubai MD | 2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 14/11/25 ATP Finals MD | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/11/24 ATP World Tour Finals MD | 0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 17/08/24 ATP Cincinnati MD | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/07/24 Wimbledon MD | 2-1 | 18-18 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Heliovaara/Patten
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Kokkinakis/Kovacevic Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/07 | Andreozzi/Guinard Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 05/07 | Pavlasek/Rikl Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 03/07 | Kiger/Trhac Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 01/07 | Atmane/Sanchez Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Arevalo/Pavic ATP Queens MD · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Harrison/Skupski ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 19/06 | Stevenson/Willis ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-1 | 20-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Andreozzi/Guinard ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/06 | Granollers/Zeballos French Open MD · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Arevalo/Pavic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Krawietz/Puetz Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Cash/Glasspool Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/07 | Rojer/Winegar Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 03/07 | Stevenson/Willis Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Bublik/Kyrgios Wimbledon MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Heliovaara/Patten ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Cash/Glasspool ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Bhambri/Venus ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/06 | Ram/Salisbury ATP Queens MD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/06 | Arends/Pel French Open MD · Clay |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Heliovaara/Patten vs Arevalo/Pavic?
Our model gives 51% to Arevalo/Pavic, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.