Tennis · M25 Kassel · 09/07, 12:30
Prediction: Nikolai Barsukov vs Matthew William Donald
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Matthew William Donald; the market gives 66% to Matthew William Donald (odds 1.40).
Over their last 10 matches, Nikolai Barsukov sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Matthew William Donald arrives on a 5-5 run.
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nikolai Barsukov 1472 · Matthew William Donald 1515
| Nikolai Barsukov | Matthew William Donald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matthew William Donald (rating 1472 vs 1515).
- Note: Matthew William Donald makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Nikolai Barsukov | Matthew William Donald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (9) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-11.2 | 9.7-9.4 |
| Aces | 5 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.3% | 62.4% |
| Break % | 36.8% | 42.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nikolai Barsukov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Matteo Fondriest M25 Kassel |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 23/06 | Michel Hopp M15 Kamen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/06 | Pieter De Lange M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 18/06 | Manvydas Balciunas M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Lasse Poertner M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
1-0 | 7-6 | W |
| 09/06 | Lilian Marmousez M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Fons Van Sambeek M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 03/06 | Martins Rocens M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/05 | Nino Ehrenschneider M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Calvin Mueller M15 Klagenfurt · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
Matthew William Donald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Arian Barbic M25 Kassel |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 28/06 | Luca Potenza Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/06 | Fausto Tabacco M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
| 25/06 | Manuel Plunger M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Daniele Rapagnetta M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 07/06 | Buvaysar Gadamauri Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Francesco Forti Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nikolai Barsukov vs Matthew William Donald?
Our model gives 62% to Matthew William Donald, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.