Tennis · M25 Kassel · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Ioannis Xilas vs Lasse Poertner
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 63% to Lasse Poertner; the market gives 66% to Ioannis Xilas (odds 1.40).
On recent form, Ioannis Xilas is 3-7 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Lasse Poertner 7-3 over theirs.
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ioannis Xilas 1431 · Lasse Poertner 1522
| Ioannis Xilas | Lasse Poertner | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lasse Poertner (rating 1431 vs 1522).
- Lasse Poertner is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Ioannis Xilas | Lasse Poertner | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 14% (7) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.9-11.7 | 12.1-10 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 59.1% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 38.9% | 61.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ioannis Xilas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Isac Stroemberg M25 Kassel |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/07 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 31/05 | Manuel Mazza Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Manuel Mazza M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Michael Geerts Challenger Abidjan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Matthew William Donald M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Lasse Poertner
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Mariano Dedura-Palomero M25 Kassel |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Michel Hopp M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Julien Penzlin M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Julian Forer M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Nikolai Barsukov M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
0-1 | 6-7 | L |
| 15/06 | Kim Johannes Niethammer M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/06 | Sander Jong Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Florian Broska Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/05 | Mac Visser M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 25/05 | Dorian Tremblay M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
2-1 | 11-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ioannis Xilas vs Lasse Poertner?
Our model gives 53% to Ioannis Xilas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.