Tennis · M15 Monastir · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Timofey Stepanov
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Mohamed Aziz Dougaz; the market gives 84% to Mohamed Aziz Dougaz (odds 1.11).
On recent form, Mohamed Aziz Dougaz is 4-6 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Timofey Stepanov 4-6 over theirs.
73%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1574 · Timofey Stepanov 1517
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Timofey Stepanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mohamed Aziz Dougaz (rating 1574 vs 1517).
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 46% break avg.
Statistics
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Timofey Stepanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 86% (7) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-9.9 | 10.2-9.8 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 46% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Sean Daryabeigi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 05/07 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Tuncay Duran M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 03/07 | Digvijay Pratap Singh M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Nicolas Robert M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Rei Sakamoto Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Clement Chidekh Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Rodrigo Fernandes M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 04/06 | Yassine Dlimi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Timofey Stepanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Daniel Bagnolini M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Yash Chaurasia M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Liam Branger M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Valentin Faure M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Andrew Johnson M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-11 | L |
| 09/06 | Nav Dayal M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Noah Zamora M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 02/06 | Juan Carlos Fuentes Vasquez M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Lucas Marionneau M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/02 | Bernardo Munk Mesa UTR Pro Berkeley · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Timofey Stepanov?
Our model gives 73% to Mohamed Aziz Dougaz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.