Tennis · W15 Rio Claro · 09/07, 15:00
Prediction: Valentina Mediorreal Arias vs Ana Candiotto
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 68% to Ana Candiotto; the market gives 59% to Ana Candiotto (odds 1.57).
Over their last 10 matches, Valentina Mediorreal Arias sits at 2-8 (W-L), while Ana Candiotto arrives on a 7-3 run.
63%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valentina Mediorreal Arias 1451 · Ana Candiotto 1581
| Valentina Mediorreal Arias | Ana Candiotto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ana Candiotto (rating 1451 vs 1581).
- Ana Candiotto is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Valentina Mediorreal Arias | Ana Candiotto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (3) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.5 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.2-10.3 | 10.3-8.8 |
| Aces | 0.3 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 56.9% | 64.2% |
| Break % | 40.4% | 40.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valentina Mediorreal Arias
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Manuela Ferreira Banietti W15 Rio Claro |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 23/06 | Chiara Di Genova W15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/04 | Emery Combs W15 Orlando · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 11/04 | Fernanda Labrana Billie Jean King Cup |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 10/04 | Bethania Carolina Bonaguro La Roche Billie Jean King Cup |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 09/04 | Jessica Hinojosa Gomez Billie Jean King Cup |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 08/04 | Camila Romero Billie Jean King Cup |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 30/03 | Tatjana Maria WTA Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/02 | Petra Konjikusic W15 Manacor |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/02 | Midori Castillo Meza W15 Manacor |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Ana Candiotto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Giovana Schincariol Delatorre Barbosa W15 Rio Claro |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Luciana Moyano W15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/06 | Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso W15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Ana Carmen Zamburek W15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Catalina Delmas Schaerer W15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Julia Caffarena W15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Marjorie Souza W15 Luque · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Gabriella Price W35 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Camila Romero W15 Brasilia |
0-2 | 6-11 | L |
| 04/06 | Leticia Garcia Vidal W15 Brasilia |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valentina Mediorreal Arias vs Ana Candiotto?
Our model gives 63% to Ana Candiotto, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.